Understanding Global Carbon Emissions Trends and India's Impact

Key Findings from the Global Carbon Project

Recent research by the Global Carbon Project (GCP) has unveiled significant trends in carbon emissions globally and in India, as presented during COP30 in Belem, Brazil. This report is crucial for understanding the ongoing climate crisis and the necessary steps to mitigate its impact.

India-Specific Data

India's emissions are projected to rise by 1.4% in 2025, which is a notable decrease from the anticipated 4% increase in 2024. This slower growth can be attributed to several factors:

• A favorable monsoon, which reduces the demand for cooling.
• The robust expansion of renewable energy sources, which has lowered dependency on coal.

Currently, India stands as the third-largest carbon emitter, releasing around 3.2 billion tonnes annually in 2024, following the United States, which emits 4.9 billion tonnes. Despite these figures, India's per capita emissions are among the lowest in the world. Coal remains the primary contributor to India's carbon emissions.

Global Emissions Overview

On a global scale, carbon emissions are expected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching approximately 38 billion tonnes. Notable trends include:

• China's emissions may increase by 0.4%, while the U.S. could experience a 1.9% rise.
• CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels are climbing across all major fuel types:
  • Coal: +0.8%
  • Oil: +1%
  • Natural Gas: +1.3%

Even though renewable energy has surpassed coal as the leading source of electricity, the surge in global energy demand continues to drive fossil fuel consumption. Furthermore, emissions from land-use changes, particularly due to deforestation, remain high at 4 billion tonnes annually, with reforestation only offsetting half of these emissions.

Decarbonisation Efforts and climate targets

Overall, global CO₂ emissions have slowed to a 0.3% annual growth rate over the past decade, compared to 1.9% in the previous decade. However, this reduction is still inadequate to meet climate targets. Current decarbonisation strategies are insufficient to limit global warming and achieve the Paris Agreement goal of keeping temperature rise below 1.5°C. At the current rate, the global carbon budget is nearly exhausted, positioning the world towards an estimated 2.6°C temperature increase.

The Paris Agreement: A Brief Overview

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty focused on climate change, adopted by 195 parties during COP21 in Paris in 2015, and it came into effect in 2016. Its primary aim is to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while striving to restrict it to 1.5°C.

Recommendations for COP30

It is imperative that COP30 delivers a clear, actionable roadmap for accelerating the global transition to clean and sustainable energy sources. There is an urgent need to increase investments that safeguard lives and livelihoods against climate-related impacts such as floods, droughts, and cyclones.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1. What are the projected carbon emissions for India in 2025?
Answer: India's emissions are projected to increase by 1.4% in 2025, which is significantly lower than the 4% increase expected in 2024, due to factors like favorable monsoon and renewable energy expansion.

Q2. What is the primary driver of carbon emissions in India?
Answer: Coal continues to be the main contributor to India's carbon emissions, despite the growth in renewable energy sources.

Q3. How do global carbon emissions compare to India's emissions?
Answer: Global carbon emissions are expected to reach approximately 38 billion tonnes in 2025, with India contributing around 3.2 billion tonnes, making it the third-largest emitter.

Q4. What is the aim of the Paris Agreement?
Answer: The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to restrict it to 1.5°C.

Q5. Why are current decarbonisation efforts insufficient?
Answer: Current decarbonisation strategies are inadequate to meet climate targets; they do not sufficiently reduce emissions to limit global warming to the agreed levels under the Paris Agreement.

UPSC Practice MCQs

Question 1: What is the projected carbon emission increase for India in 2025?
A) 4%
B) 1.4%
C) 2%
D) 3%
Correct Answer: B

Question 2: Which country is the largest emitter of carbon emissions?
A) India
B) China
C) United States
D) Russia
Correct Answer: C

Question 3: What is the main source of India’s carbon emissions?
A) Natural gas
B) Oil
C) Coal
D) Renewable energy
Correct Answer: C

Question 4: How much are global carbon emissions expected to rise in 2025?
A) 0.5%
B) 1.1%
C) 2%
D) 1.5%
Correct Answer: B