Geopolitical Shift: Maldives under President Muizzu

Overview of Maldives' Geopolitical Shift

The Maldives, under the leadership of President Mohamed Muizzu, is making significant changes that redefine its geopolitical alliances, particularly in relation to India and China. This includes not renewing the agreement with the Indian Navy for hydrographic surveys, indicating a shift towards closer ties with China.

Key Developments in Maldives' foreign policy

• End of India-Maldives Hydrographic Survey Agreement: The decision to not renew the agreement with the Indian Navy for hydrographic surveys of Maldivian waters reflects a clear pivot in the Maldives’ defense and foreign policy. The Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) will now assume these responsibilities, showcasing a move towards self-reliance in maritime security.
• China's Growing Influence: Concurrently, Beijing is seeking permission for its research vessels to operate in the Southern Indian Ocean, raising alarms in New Delhi regarding potential surveillance of Indian defense bases. This initiative is part of China’s expanding influence in the Indian Ocean region, especially among nations aligned with its ‘String of Pearls’ strategy.
• Reducing Indian Military Presence: President Muizzu’s directive for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel from the Maldives marks a significant shift, emphasizing the 'India Out' policy. This reflects rising apprehensions regarding the Indian military's footprint in the Maldives.
• Reassessment of Past Agreements: The new Maldivian government’s review of past 'secret agreements' signals a reevaluation of the previous administration’s foreign policy, particularly concerning agreements that may compromise national sovereignty.
• Distance from India-Driven Platforms: The Maldives’ absence from the Colombo Security Conclave indicates a deliberate distancing from multilateral platforms influenced by India, aligning more closely with its independent foreign policy stance.
• Changing Diplomatic Traditions: President Muizzu’s inaugural visit to Turkey, diverging from the tradition of visiting India, coupled with participation in China’s National Day celebrations, signifies a diversification of the Maldives’ international relations.
• Impact on India's Strategic Interests: These developments pose challenges to India’s strategic interests in the region. The Maldives' proximity to India's western coast and its role in regional maritime security are essential for India’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
• India's Role as a Regional Responder: Despite current tensions, India’s historical role as a first responder to crises in the Maldives, such as the 2004 tsunami and the 2020 Covid pandemic, emphasizes the long-standing ties between the two nations.
• Future Directions: The Maldives’ new foreign policy orientation necessitates India to reassess its approach towards Male, balancing geopolitical interests with regional stability. Observers will closely monitor how India navigates this evolving landscape, particularly in light of China's rising influence in the Indian Ocean.

Conclusion

The policy shifts in the Maldives under President Muizzu signify a notable transition in South Asian geopolitics, impacting regional power dynamics and India's strategic interests. The evolving situation calls for careful diplomatic maneuvering by India in response to China's increasing presence in the region.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1. What are the key changes in Maldives' foreign policy under President Muizzu?
Answer: President Muizzu's administration has shifted away from India by not renewing agreements with the Indian Navy, while seeking closer ties with China, impacting regional dynamics.

Q2. How does China's influence affect India's interests in the Maldives?
Answer: China's increasing presence in the Maldives raises concerns for India regarding surveillance and regional security, challenging India's strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.

Q3. What is the significance of the 'India Out' policy in the Maldives?
Answer: The 'India Out' policy reflects growing concerns about Indian military presence in the Maldives, indicating a shift towards self-reliance and reduced foreign military influence.

Q4. Why did President Muizzu visit Turkey instead of India?
Answer: This visit breaks traditional diplomatic norms, highlighting a shift in Maldives' foreign policy towards diversifying its international relationships beyond India.

Q5. What impact do these developments have on regional security?
Answer: The Maldives' changing alliances may lead to increased geopolitical tensions in the Indian Ocean, necessitating a reevaluation of security strategies by neighboring countries, especially India.

UPSC Practice MCQs

Question 1: What policy has President Muizzu implemented regarding Indian military presence in the Maldives?
A) Expansion of Indian military bases
B) Withdrawal of Indian military personnel
C) Increase in joint military exercises
D) Strengthening of defense agreements with India
Correct Answer: B

Question 2: Which country is seeking permission for research vessels in the Southern Indian Ocean?
A) India
B) Japan
C) China
D) Australia
Correct Answer: C

Question 3: The Maldives' absence from which platform indicates its distancing from India-driven initiatives?
A) SAARC
B) G20
C) Colombo Security Conclave
D) ASEAN
Correct Answer: C